Beige book du 19 Avril 2017 et hausse des taux du 3 Mai 2017

Le beige book annonce une amélioration dans tous les domaine, mais relativise en pointant le coté  » moderate » et « modest » de ces améliorations :

Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity increased in each of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts between mid-February and the end of March, with the pace of expansion equally split between modest and moderate. In addition, the pickup was evident to varying degrees across economic sectors. Manufacturing continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace, although growth in freight shipments slowed slightly. Consumer spending varied as reports of stronger light vehicle sales were accompanied by somewhat softer readings in non-auto retail spending. Tourism and travel activity generally picked up. On balance, reports suggested that residential construction growth accelerated somewhat even as growth in home sales slowed, in part due to a lack of inventory. Nonresidential construction remained strong, but became more mixed in some regions; leasing activity generally improved at a more modest pace. More than half of the reports suggested that loan volumes increased, while only one said they were down modestly. Non-financial services generally continued to expand steadily. Energy-related businesses noted improved conditions while agricultural conditions varied.

On a vu dans l’article du 15 Mars, que le marché avait anticipé une hausse de 0.5 % des taux d’intérêt, alors que Yellen ne les a monté que de 0.25 %.

Le TBond à 10 ans était à 2.6 % le 15 Mars, il n’a cessé de baisser pour atteindre aujourd’hui 2.2 %.  Il est peu probable qu’on ait une hausse des taux. Le marché en tous cas ne la price pas.

L’économie américaine s’améliore toujours aussi lentement. Yellen avait raison. Pas de forte croissance, donc pas d’inflation ni de risque d’inflation, pour l’instant, et cela malgré des prix du pétrôle qui se maintienne sous les 54 $ depuis plus d’un an.

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